I don’t normally get into the prediction business, but a post by Lisa Barone at Outspoken Media got my attention and made me think about the future of social media. A Twittervention! What If There Was No Twitter? was written to suggest, among other things, that companies shouldn’t be relying solely on Web applications like Twitter or Facebook to maintain a Web presence.  Companies need to continue to maintain Web presences that they own, control, and influence.  That makes perfect sense to me.

Lisa also made the point of predicting, with absolute certainty, that Twitter will eventually die.  I think she’s right, in the sense that almost every application or website eventually dies and is replaced by something else.

I left the following comment on her blog post:

I think that Facebook could replace Twitter in a heartbeat and would probably fill the inevitable void that would appear if Twitter died.

With three possible exceptions:

1. The proliferation of apps that give Twitter’s simple platform power and flexibility (but maybe it wouldn’t be hard to handle that).

2. The limits on followers/friends (although that can be circumvented with Facebook pages).

3. Search: Facebook is the walled garden. Tweets can be found via various types of searching, but Facebook, she’s-a locked solid unless you’re really sneaky (or so I believe I’ve heard).

Just my $0.02. There are still a ton of people who don’t see the value of Twitter updates, but they’ll play around in Facebook, leaving status updates and electronic trails, until their fingers go numb. I think that’s something important to consider.

P.S. OK, I really do like (even love) Twitter. But I don’t think it will be huge crisis when it fails. I really can’t see Facebook failing.

I got thinking about this more today.  I really think that a site like Facebook is the future, not Twitter.  Facebook is “good enough” for the average user.  As technology continues to spread and complex things become simpler and easier to do, they will become mainstream.

Here’s the thing:  unless Twitter eventually becomes more functionality rich and does more than shunt text (links are text, after all) around the Web, it’s limited.  I know, I know, a lot of people are perfectly happy with the limitations around Twitter.  At the same time, a lot of people were perfectly happy with the limitations around:

• Wordperfect
• Lotus 1-2-3
• Dial up bulletin board systems
• ARCHIE, VERONICA, and Gopher
• MS-DOS
• IP addresses before domain names were created
• Two-digit years being stored in databases
• The original America Online, CompuServe, Prodigy, etc.
• Usenet
• The original Sony Walkman that played audio cassettes
• VHS and BETA
• Cathode ray televisions
• Black and white televisions
• Stoves and freezers before microwave ovens came along
• DVD is on the road to being replaced by Blu-Ray

And the list goes on.

My point is that we demand not only simplicity and ease of use, but also functionality.

Twitter is a limited platform that is unlikely to evolve.  Gen Y and younger (not to mention members of Gen X and older) can do Twitter in their sleep.  But, it probably doesn’t do everything they want to do.  They aren’t into just reading text.  Yes, you can send links via Twitter, but each extra click you add is a barrier to it being used.

Facebook can basically do everything that Twitter can do, plus a whole lot more.  To some people, Facebook is the Web because it’s a portal to other things.  You can share photos on it.  You can write your notes.  You can share links.  You can keep track of your friends.  You can spend hours on it playing Flash games.  And so on.

Twitter?  You can send text messages.  But only short ones.  With links.  But unless you have an extra app loaded, you really don’t know what the links are until you click on them.

Facebook could eventually die as well.  It probably will die someday.  It has its own limits and it may yet be replaced by a better (read:  open) platform.

But which will die first?  Twitter, no question in my mind.  It may take 1 year, 2 years, 5 years, 10 years, or longer, but Twitter will eventually die because simple tools only last until something equally simpler, cheaper, easier to use and more powerful comes along.  We’ve seen it over and over again with different kinds of technology.  The same thing will likely happen to Facebook.  But I think Twitter will die first.

What do you think?

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Also, Twitter is the Drive-Thru, Facebook is the Sit down Restaurant

Other posts that you might enjoy reading:

• Observations on social media and political issues
• Should you update your Facebook status using Twitter?
• FriendFeed’s Underappreciated Value – The Comment Nexus
• Thoughts from Skellie of Skelliewag.org
• Reader Recommendation Friday

I’ve been trying to wrack my brains on how to present this theory elegantly, but that’s not going well.  I’m going to try a more direct approach.

I believe that I’m seeing a trend whereby links shared by Twitter are being clicked on less frequently than they were even six months ago.  I know that in my own experience that I can’t (and don’t) check out the vast majority of the links that I see within the different websites that I use.  I think other people are experiencing the same situation.

Put simply, I think that each new social media service that we start using makes it harder to keep up with things in general.  At first, the cornucopia of Web offerings seems really great and we start using them as soon as we hear about them.  We’re exposed to lots of different people, new knowledge, and generally enjoy ourselves.  Each new website seems like a shiny new toy.  Sometimes we get caught up in the thrill in making new connections and our friend lists grow.

But it doesn’t seem to be like it used to be.  People don’t seem to connect with each other as much or follow each other’s work.

I keep trying to relate Barry Schwartz’s book The Paradox of Choice to this phenomenon.  It’s not a perfect fit, but I think there are some things to consider about this.

The paradox of choice is that something that should make us feel happy and fulfilled (having great flexibility of choices in our lives) often leads to stress and anxiety.  There’s a number of reasons for this:

• too many options makes the act of making a decision more of picking from a dizzying list of options rather than selecting from a few alternatives that you can easily understand and research
• analysis-paralysis sets in:  how do I spend my time with so much information being thrown at me?
• when something that seemed fun becomes work, we might tend to do it less

I think some people abandon social media services because they take work to keep up with, especially if you try to keep track of people that you’ve never physically met them.  I also think that, after awhile, as you follow too many people, the number of links and updates shared by other people just feel overwhelming and we decide to not bother following them at all for long periods of time.  This would be similar to the feeling you have when you check your E-Mail inbox in the morning and find 500 E-Mails.

There’s also the problem of offering that are just too similar.  There are literally hundreds of social media blogs out there, as an example.  But which ones do you follow?  You try to settle down with a handful of blogs, but then you hear about another good one, so you subscribe to it and… then you have to rationalize again.

As for all of the links that are shared by Twitter, there’s a definite downside to the URL shorteners like bit.ly.  They do save characters when you are Tweeting, but they give no clue as to the actual website that the link is to, so then it becomes a case of who or what do you trust?  How do you pick and choose?  Can you trust what the Twitter user puts in for text or will it turn out to be crap or an affiliate link or…

Also, the fact that some people Tweet so many links, @replies, and other updates that you don’t know if the Tweets you see now are better than, or worse than, older Tweets.  Tweets aren’t like blog posts that appear in your RSS reader:  they tend to disappear more quickly.

So, with all of these factors, does it seem to make a bit more sense as to why people might not be clicking on links or otherwise monitoring their social media websites as much as they used to?

This post is a bit off the cuff, so it probably needs so more thought and work, but I think there’s some truth to it.

What do you think?  Do you think the paradox of choice is causing people to turn away, in degrees, from social media?  Is the flexibility killing the medium?  Or is this just the jumbled musings of a partially awake blogger?

Other posts that you might enjoy reading:

• What would you do with your last Tweets?
• The story behind #100tofollow
• Seth says: how to really make friends and influence people online
• I said it first on Twitter
• Links – distraction or help

As first written on Twitter:

I would hereby like to coin the term “nanocause”. It’s a thing that you care about for no more than fifteen minutes before you get bored.

Twitter is the breeding ground for the nanocause. Like the song lyrics say from Huey Lewis and the News’s song “The Heart of Rock and Roll”: where else can you can find a half a million things, all at a quarter to three?” Huey was actually singing about New York City, but I think it fits Twitter. There are so many causes, pet projects, peeves, and random bits of information shared on Twitter every minute that it lends itself to briefly caring about causes before the next one catches your attention.

Other posts that you might enjoy reading:

• Thoughts from Skellie of Skelliewag.org
• Reader Recommendation Friday
• Prediction: Twitter will die before Facebook does
• The role of the Twitter follower
• Speedlinking – February 12 2010

Starry Night by Vincent Van Gogh, available in the public domain

I’m still fixated on the concept of taste, as I blogged about recently after watching an Ira Glass video about content creators and the need for good taste.  Taste is also something that I’ve been thinking about a bit since having read Trust Agents.  Demonstrating good taste is a way to get people to trust you, especially if they’ve never met you before.

Dictionary.com has the following meanings for the noun taste:

• A relish, liking, or partiality for something: a taste for music.
• The sense of what is fitting, harmonious, or beautiful; the perception and enjoyment of what constitutes excellence in the fine arts, literature, fashion, etc.
• The sense of what is seemly, polite, tactful, etc., to say or do in a given social situation.
• One’s personal attitude or reaction toward an aesthetic phenomenon or social situation, regarded as either good or bad.
• The ideas of aesthetic excellence or of aesthetically valid forms prevailing in a culture or personal to an individual: a sample of Victorian taste; I consulted only my own taste in decorating this room.
• The formal idiom preferred by a certain artist or culture; style; manner: a façade in the Baroque taste.

The common thread running through these definitions is our preference and liking for things, which is often (or often seems to be) reflected in what we say and what we do.

Taste is an important signal. In simple terms, our taste is a defining characteristic and informs other people about the kind of person we are.  Our signals of the things that we like or dislike provide clues to other people who meet us and allow them to form judgments about us.  The clothes we wear, the books we read, the wines we drink, the music we listen to and the subjects that we Tweet about, rightly or wrongly, seem to demonstrate our tastes and help other people determine whether we should be friend, foe, or invisible.  Maybe the first punk rock song that you heard made you spike your hair, pierce your nose, get tattooed, and generally develop an anti-social attitude (pardon the stereotyping, just trying to come up with a memorable example) – that demonstrates one kind of tastes.  Perhaps seeing that a celebrity likes a certain kind of shirt turns you on to the same shirt – if they like it, it must be good, right?.  Seeing someone drinking Miller Beer may give one impression; drinking 30 year old Scotch may give another.  Seeing similar tastes can help build liking, if not trust, early on.

However, taste isn’t an absolute indicator.  A tomboy might enjoy wearing beautiful dresses in the right environments.  A lumberjack could be an avid knitter.  Julia Child liked cheeseburgers.  Many of us have tastes that run from exquisite to barbaric.  For example, I’m one of three people in the world who really liked the movie version of the 1960s TV series The Avengers. I like good fiction in all forms, but I love the 70s series Space:1999 so much that I’d like to make a new version of it, despite the fact that I’m not a TV or movie pro.  I love good food but I can eat McDonalds food occasionally and enjoy it.  And so on.  When you see someone enjoying crap, for want of a better word, you might miss the good stuff that they like.

Nonetheless, taste can work for you.  If nothing else, it can lead to a handshake, a conversation, and a card exchange.  It’s worth remembering that our public displays of taste help define us in the eyes of others.  It’s not the only factor, but it’s definitely one worth remembering.

Other posts that you might enjoy reading:

• The importance of good taste
• Building up someone by tearing down another works – not

The short answer is that I wanted to help people express themselves online and help them to build a blog, a social media profile, or otherwise self-actualize. The question is: why did I spend the time to create a post with more than 20,000 content ideas?

Yes, there’s no doubt that publishing a post like this, which got some decent sharing within social media sites, was a direct benefit to me.  But I’m really hoping is that it was beneficial to you.  On the surface, yes, you can generate a large number of blog post ideas, topics, articles, etc. by using the Content Idea Matrix.  I provided a lot of content that you can use.  Just print out the blog post, draw some lines, and you can easily create hundreds if not thousands of your own pieces of content.

However, there are three things that I really hope that you, the reader, got from reading the post:

1. The concept that you can mix and match ideas, people, characters, places, facts, thoughts, pieces, etc. to create new and different content, even if it is just a variation on an existing idea.
2. You can use a tool like the Content Idea Matrix to mix and match your own ideas together and see what kinds of content you can come up with using your own ideas.
3. Lots of other people had great ideas for blog topics and I including links to just a few of them at the end of the 20,000+ ideas post.

This is all about trying to help people do things by equipping with tools.  This is the type of thing that a great blogger and writer that Chris Brogan does regularly and so do many others.

What I find, though, is that more and more social media content is focused on the enterprise, the organization, or the business professional. There’s certainly nothing wrong with that: the tools are there and they can be very effective for those purposes. More power to you if that’s why you or your organization want to use it for those reasons.

I just feel that the individual content creator is starting to get buried and ignored by all of this other activity. And that’s not only a shame, it’s just plain wrong. There’s a lot of talk online about how group blogs, as an example, are getting the most traffic, attention, and respect and the individual content creator is losing in the process. Of course, there are contrary examples where individuals are making their mark while organizations aren’t.  But there seems to be more talk about the growing power of the groups (or the Collectives, if you will.)

Smart, talented, individual voices that want to make their mark, argue a point, champion a cause, or otherwise develop their talents are not just competing amongst themselves, but against larger groups with better resources, more content, and… you get the picture, right? Now let’s be honest: most people don’t become successful (however you define that) on their own. We all benefit from help. I’m starting to understand the wisdom of collaboration better than I ever have and I’m looking for ways to do a better job of doing that in 2010 and beyond. But, darn it, if you do good, meaningful work and can keep doing it, then you deserve some recognition and whatever rewards should rightfully come from that.

Recognition and rewards aren’t going to find you on their own: that’s a fact. You may have a passion that will not earn you any money and that may be something that you’ll have to come to terms with. Making your mark may make you unpopular and cause some problems, but there could be other amazing rewards as well. Nothing is guaranteed, but many things are possible.

This isn’t a proper manifesto (although that may be coming soon), but for now, I’m taking a step closer to focus things a bit more here at Broadcasting Brain. Different thoughts about thinking differently isn’t just an attempt at a witty slogan – there’s a purpose behind it. Apple was right in their famous slogan “think different”. It’s easy to copy other people’s great ideas – sometimes it’s essential. However, the best things arise from our own spin, take, and improvements. Other times we need to come up with completely different ideas, shake up the status quo, tear things down and build them up bigger.

Sometimes I’m better at thinking differently than acting differently, but it’s always possible to change, even if it’s just a little bit at a time. Maybe you feel the same way.

So my hope is that I can create useful content for people who want to wave their freak flag high and make their mark on the world. I hope I can share content, either my own or other people’s, that will get you thinking differently and doing better work, however you define it.

Let’s keep going.

Image by Marco Bellucci

Other posts that you might enjoy reading:

• Why do you blog if not for money?
• Are questions getting in the way of publishing something?
• How Saturday morning musings can make some of the best posts
• LOST and blogging about islands
• Learning or thrashing?

Whether or not you’re a content creator, marketer, or both, Mitch Joel’s interview with J. C. Hutchins, writer turned podcaster turned published author, is fascinating listening.  Is social media the key to getting published in the future?

In the miscellaneous category, Charlie tries to destroy the concepts of starships and people traveling to other solar systems - depressing but interesting reading.

Jonathan Fields links to some inspirational and motivations videos.

Lateral Action wonders how good is too good, a look at perfection in work.

And finally, those cringing in fear about the new FTC blogging regulations should check out Steven’s post where he links to some people providing helpful images to escape the wrath of the FTC.  Funny, too!

PS:  I really identified with Criticism, Cheerleading, and Negativity.

Other posts that you might enjoy reading:

• The Broadcasting Brain Seldom-Seen Sampler

Today, I’d like to point you toward a guest post that I wrote for Search Engine People a few weeks ago.  My Social Media Processes will give you a good idea of how I  process all of the different social media information at my disposal.  Thanks to Ruud Hein for embellishing and improving the original text.  Please have a look.

Have a good day!

Other posts that you might enjoy reading:

• Take the conn dear reader – strut your stuff!
• The birth of a nation – I mean a blog
• Thoughts from Jason Falls of Social Media Explorer
• Maybe Every Thought Aggregates
• A simple theory on why social media is losing its mojo

The first significant snowfall is happening in my part of the world today. I have my snow tires on my car – this is an annual ritual for those of us who drive regularly. I was a little late in putting them on last year, so I made a point of putting them on early this time, even if they endured some extra wear and tear on the hard pavement for a couple of weeks.  The extra grip and safety is worth it.

There are certain times each year when conditions change and we need to do things differently.  If retailers didn’t take steps to update and bolster their web sites, events like Black Friday become disasters.  The entire Christmas season is a call for more activity, more inventory, etc.

On the first hot days of summer, we expect that lemonade, sun tan lotion, and, yes, beer sales will probably spike.

Social media activity mirrors real world events in some ways.  In other ways, it’s sometimes more sensitive to the days of the week than other events, although it did seem to me that my social media haunts on the Web were quieter than normal.  Google Reader slowed down to a trickle from its normal steady stream of updates.  I expect today (Monday) to roar back to normal.

Different times, different situations require different methods and preparations.

So, on this first snowy day in my part of the world, my question to you is:  have you put on your (social media) snow tires yet?

Image by Danilo Paissan

Other posts that you might enjoy reading:

• Take the conn dear reader – strut your stuff!
• The birth of a nation – I mean a blog
• Thoughts from Jason Falls of Social Media Explorer
• Maybe Every Thought Aggregates
• A simple theory on why social media is losing its mojo

Hello everyone.  I’ve created a video post to respond to Chris Brogan’s post Are We Addicted To Giving Our Own Opinions.  I’ve never done one of these before and it may look/sound terrible, but there’s a first time for everything.

I chose to do this response because Chris disabled comments on this particular blog post.  Perhaps it’s a thought experiment he’s trying out.  I took the bait.  Cheers.

EDIT:  so much for conspiracy theories.  It appears that Chris disabled comments by accident, which kind of negated part of the point of this video post.  Oh well.

Update:  Ian Roundtree has his own take on Chris Brogan’s post at WingsofWax.ca:  The Evolution Inherent In Conversation.  It’s worth reading.

Other posts that you might enjoy reading:

• Take the conn dear reader – strut your stuff!
• The birth of a nation – I mean a blog
• The best bloggers are world builders
• Thoughts from Jason Falls of Social Media Explorer
• The role of the Twitter follower

There’s an interesting political issue in my home province that is seeing some use of social media.  It’s making an interesting case study.  Given the overlap between a relevant political issue and the use of social technology, I think that this is a case study worth following.

Background

The event that I referred to in my previous post became official last Thursday.  In summary, my province (New Brunswick) has signed a Memorandum of Understanding to sell the vast majority of its power utility to another province (Quebec) in exchange for debt relief and a five year guarantee on electrical power rates.  The two governments largely negotiated the deal in secret and announced it as noted above, launching a new website about the deal at the same time.  There are reports that some mainstream media outlets caught wind of the deal about six weeks ago but it only leaked to local media within the past couple of weeks.

New Brunswick’s power utility (NB Power) has accumulated a lot of debt over the decades, currently pegged at $ 4.7 billion (Canadian), with fluctuating profitability.  Our nuclear power plant is currently undergoing a refurbishment (the first of its kind for this kind of nuclear reactor) that’s over budget and considerably behind schedule – there’s a multi-billion dollar bill coming up for this, although part of it is in the $4.7 billion that I mentioned earlier.  Our main hydroelectric dam has structural problems due to an alkali-aggregate reaction and probably will need at least $1.0 billion in repairs EDIT:  a currently unknown amount of repairs at an unknown cost within the next 10 years. the projected lifespan of the dam is shorter than original estimates as a result of the reaction  (EDIT:  sorry, I got costs and lifespan wrong on this one.  Some estimates say the dam has 30 more years of power generating life; other estimates are shorter, so I don’t know what the lifespan and costs actually are.  My apologies, this could be more of a long term issue than a short term issue).   Power rates are relatively high in New Brunswick compared to the rest of Canada.

EDIT:  Nov. 3/09 – OK, things continue to be interesting with regards to the Mactaquac Hydro Dam:  in a CBC Radio question and answer session held today, Premier Shawn Graham stated that Mactaquac may have to be refurbished within the next 10 years and the price tag could be up to $3.0 billion.  Man, I wish my psychic powers were more reliable.  ;-)

Many aspects of the sale of NB Power certainly seem to contradict the election platform of the current provincial government, especially the statements that NB Power would not be sold. We have an election scheduled next year, so there’s a lot riding on this deal.  The deadline for turning the MOU into an actual deal is March 31, 2010.

The government’s use of social media

Various politicians have Twitter accounts and Facebook accounts, but they don’t seem to matter too much in this campaign.  As I mentioned earlier, the main focus of the campaign is the government’s own website about the deal.  It includes:

• a YouTube video made by Shawn Graham, the Premier (equivalent to a state governor) of New Brunswick, about the sale of NB Power
• links to key documents (i.e. the Memorandum of Understanding or MOU)
• a “blog” to which Premier Graham has made two posts since Oct. 29/09
• a section for NB citizens to write what they think about the deal – this section is moderated and apparently posts are disappearing at times, although this is unconfirmed
• contact names, phone numbers, and E-Mail addresses for several government officials

Clearly, the NB government wants this website to be the “conversation destination”.  By the way, I’m about 90% sure that it’s a hosted WordPress blog.

The public’s use of social media

Despite the government’s intentions, the real conversation hub appears to be Facebook.  A Facebook Group called NO to Sale of NB Power now has over 11,600 members and is very active (note:  the population of New Brunswick is less than 800,000.)  There’s a lot of emotional posts on the group’s Wall, many of them quite angry.  There are 22 Discussion threads at this moment and over 200 posts in the threads.  I haven’t seen any government participation in this Facebook Group, but there’s a lot of posts to sift through there.

There are some signs of activity beyond angry Wall and discussion posts.  The members of the group are organizing a protest for November 17 via the group.  They are working on selecting a spokesperson through the Facebook Group.  There is also a discussion thread about creating a lawsuit to block the sale.

There’s a Twitter hashtag #nbpower4sale that’s being used to track conversation about the sale.  There still seems to be several Tweets an hour on the topic three days after the announcement.

The future remains to be seen (will any or all of these plans come to fruition), but there’s definitely lots of communication and signs of organization via social media, just not in the place that the NB government created for discussion.

EDIT (Nov. 2/09) - Lower Rates NB is another Facebook Group about the NB Power sale.  After looking at the members list, the Wall posts, and the website for this group, I have to conclude that this Facebook group is either directly maintained by someone affiliated with the government of New Brunswick or someone who is a fan of the Premier and/or his political party.  Directly or indirectly, it does appear that the NB government and/or the political party that is the governing party is engaging on Facebook.

What am I doing during this political/social media event?

First and foremost, I’m trying to remain neutral while I educate myself on the deal and the underlying economic situation in my province.  I’ll admit that I’m skeptical, nervous, and suspicious about this deal, but I really want to understand it better.  I can’t rule out the possibility that this deal is actually the best alternative we have.

There are three main activities that I’m engaging in with regards to these events:

• I created a Facebook Group called NB Power and Hydro-Quebec:  You Read, You Decide.  I’ve positioned it as an information resource and try to keep things neutral.  I invited a number of my own Facebook contacts to join it.  The group currently has 103 members.  Most of the Wall activity are links to related material about the sale that I’ve posted.  There have been a few Wall posts by other people but, for the most part, it’s quite tame.  There are four Discussion threads but they don’t have a huge amount of activity.
• I created a WordPress.com blog about the NB Power sale.  It’s only got a few entries that are links to other information or restatements of parts of the MOU.
• I’ve used the #nbpower4sale hashtags to post links, thoughts, etc. about the deal on Twitter.  I’ve also used the hashtag to track other conversations.

What’s next?

This is a weird situation.  The sale of NB Power will have a profound long term impact on my family’s life, so I can’t realistically stay neutral about this situation.  For the time being, I’m just trying to learn more about what’s going on so I can draw some rational conclusions about this whole situation.

It’s a very emotional topic.  Many people could lose their jobs over time if this deal goes through.  It sure looks like there’s some significant short term economic gain to be had from this experience.  However, there are some significant risks and uncertainties that are scaring a lot of people.  The entire political process has made many people very angry at the government for their handling of this planned sale, especially when it looks like the Premier and his government have contradicted themselves in numerous ways.

If there’s any role that I want to play in this, it’s to help education people or, more appropriately, help them educate themselves.   Social media tools are well suited to doing this.  I think this political issue can be a useful case study and so I’ll periodically post updates.

This political event is NOT going to take over Broadcasting Brain, but it will be featured within.  It’s still relevant to a lot of the other subject matter that I discuss here.

As a final comment, if anyone has links to how social media have been used in similar situations, I’d welcome your comments and feedback (just like always!)

Other posts that you might enjoy reading:

• Prediction: Twitter will die before Facebook does
• Should you update your Facebook status using Twitter?
• FriendFeed’s Underappreciated Value – The Comment Nexus
• Thoughts from Skellie of Skelliewag.org
• Reader Recommendation Friday