I don’t normally get into the prediction business, but a post by Lisa Barone at Outspoken Media got my attention and made me think about the future of social media. A Twittervention! What If There Was No Twitter? was written to suggest, among other things, that companies shouldn’t be relying solely on Web applications like Twitter or Facebook to maintain a Web presence. Companies need to continue to maintain Web presences that they own, control, and influence. That makes perfect sense to me.
Lisa also made the point of predicting, with absolute certainty, that Twitter will eventually die. I think she’s right, in the sense that almost every application or website eventually dies and is replaced by something else.
I left the following comment on her blog post:
I think that Facebook could replace Twitter in a heartbeat and would probably fill the inevitable void that would appear if Twitter died.
With three possible exceptions:
1. The proliferation of apps that give Twitter’s simple platform power and flexibility (but maybe it wouldn’t be hard to handle that).
2. The limits on followers/friends (although that can be circumvented with Facebook pages).
3. Search: Facebook is the walled garden. Tweets can be found via various types of searching, but Facebook, she’s-a locked solid unless you’re really sneaky (or so I believe I’ve heard).
Just my $0.02. There are still a ton of people who don’t see the value of Twitter updates, but they’ll play around in Facebook, leaving status updates and electronic trails, until their fingers go numb. I think that’s something important to consider.
P.S. OK, I really do like (even love) Twitter. But I don’t think it will be huge crisis when it fails. I really can’t see Facebook failing.
I got thinking about this more today. I really think that a site like Facebook is the future, not Twitter. Facebook is “good enough” for the average user. As technology continues to spread and complex things become simpler and easier to do, they will become mainstream.
Here’s the thing: unless Twitter eventually becomes more functionality rich and does more than shunt text (links are text, after all) around the Web, it’s limited. I know, I know, a lot of people are perfectly happy with the limitations around Twitter. At the same time, a lot of people were perfectly happy with the limitations around:
- Wordperfect
- Lotus 1-2-3
- Dial up bulletin board systems
- ARCHIE, VERONICA, and Gopher
- MS-DOS
- IP addresses before domain names were created
- Two-digit years being stored in databases
- The original America Online, CompuServe, Prodigy, etc.
- Usenet
- The original Sony Walkman that played audio cassettes
- VHS and BETA
- Cathode ray televisions
- Black and white televisions
- Stoves and freezers before microwave ovens came along
- DVD is on the road to being replaced by Blu-Ray
And the list goes on.
My point is that we demand not only simplicity and ease of use, but also functionality.
Twitter is a limited platform that is unlikely to evolve. Gen Y and younger (not to mention members of Gen X and older) can do Twitter in their sleep. But, it probably doesn’t do everything they want to do. They aren’t into just reading text. Yes, you can send links via Twitter, but each extra click you add is a barrier to it being used.
Facebook can basically do everything that Twitter can do, plus a whole lot more. To some people, Facebook is the Web because it’s a portal to other things. You can share photos on it. You can write your notes. You can share links. You can keep track of your friends. You can spend hours on it playing Flash games. And so on.
Twitter? You can send text messages. But only short ones. With links. But unless you have an extra app loaded, you really don’t know what the links are until you click on them.
Facebook could eventually die as well. It probably will die someday. It has its own limits and it may yet be replaced by a better (read: open) platform.
But which will die first? Twitter, no question in my mind. It may take 1 year, 2 years, 5 years, 10 years, or longer, but Twitter will eventually die because simple tools only last until something equally simpler, cheaper, easier to use and more powerful comes along. We’ve seen it over and over again with different kinds of technology. The same thing will likely happen to Facebook. But I think Twitter will die first.
What do you think?
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Also, Twitter is the Drive-Thru, Facebook is the Sit down Restaurant
I don’t know if I agree or disagree. I think eventually they could morph and somehow become the same thing. Facebook’s changes in the last year or two have been to make it more like Twitter. I think Twitter has shown them how Facebook should evolve.
Facebook has on the plus side numbers. But my experience of it is that it continues to be clunky (try loading a photo from the web) and has poor usability. I can’t count the number of times people have asked, “How’s it work?” or “How do you do that?” or said simply, “I don’t understand.” They also continue to have privacy issues and I think it stems from a blind spot in their thinking. They simply don’t see privacy as a big deal so anything they do is always in reaction to their users or governments (like Canada’s).
I think Twitter has on its side the potential to evolve more quickly. I’m not a tech person, but it seems to me oodles of people work on it — it’s open source in a sense. Dave Winer has spoken of it and suggested we could see multiple Twitters (I’m not entirely sure what he means). It’s not that I think Twitter will take over but maybe have greater influence in the end. Facebook … I don’t know. I see it becoming a kind of web on the web, in a sense displacing the web due to sheer numbers. But then the issue becomes, who owns it? Controls it?
I’m just speculating off the top of my head …
Bill´s last blog ..A follow-up bonus writing rule
@Bill – Facebook still has a lot of room to evolve and improve. Twitter is too limiting, in my opinion, for mass user adoption. Agreed that privacy controls/thinking are still murky within Facebook.
Without a major rewrite and revitalization, Twitter is still too limiting. Ironically, I think Pownce might have been a better platform, but it didn’t hit critical mass in time.
Maybe Facebook itself isn’t the answer, but something like Facebook, with multiple functional options, is a more likely path to the future, in my opinion.
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RT @rickmans: Prediction: Twitter will die before Facebook does [link to post]
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Prediction: Twitter will die before Facebook does [link to post]
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RT @MarkDykeman: Blog post: Facebook will triumph over Twitter [link to post]
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I think you’re right. Whilst Facebook is not perfect and clunky to use, Twitter has no business model, which in itself, will determine survival
@Matthew – long term, I think you’re right about Twitter’s survival chances (although they’ve done an amazing job of surviving so far). I don’t know if Facebook pays for itself yet, but I think it’s got to be generating some significant cash through advertising and services.
[...] Prediction: Twitter will die before Facebook does [...]
Just like the list of older products you mention, things will evolve. Facebook will evolve and Twitter will evolve. We tend to want to stick things in a “permanent” status as if we’re talking about companies in the 1950s as in “General Motors will last forever.” Never works that way.
I am losing my interest in Twitter, gaining interest in facebook, but only because I get more effective use from facebook, despite really disliking it at times.
Gee, don’t I sound cheery! Sorry.
John McLachlan´s last blog ..Balance is a Myth
John: agreed that there is no guarantee that these two applications have a long term future. Your comments about your own experiences with Twitter and Facebook are interesting. Certainly there’s lots to dislike about Facebook. My main point in the article was that it might not be a big deal if Twitter dies because there’s a Facebook that could step in and handle most, if not all, of the same functionality.
Mark: I agree that Facebook could easily pick up if Twitter left off. Facebook is already being used more like Twitter.
John McLachlan´s last blog ..Balance is a Myth
I see Twitter going for the simple reason they do not have a business model, it is fun and easy to use. Could it morph into something else?
Sure and I could win the lottery tomorrow.
But Facebook is a beast with a plan. I use both to sell my books, I have sold far more books on Facebook than Twitter is more like “hey what’s up” Facebook is like “I got his for dinner how long are you staying?”
@Glendon – I actually wouldn’t discount the possibility that Twitter will someday be able to generate some decent revenue, but they don’t have the user base or income potential of Facebook.
@mekdykeman- Well this is the thing, Facebook has some intrinsic value that I do not think Twitter can ever duplicate. I have found out more about my friends ( some 20 + years ) due to Facebook, people use their real names and real credentials Facebook ( a marketer’s dream) not even close to that on twitter….but I could be wrong.
Glendon Cameron´s last blog ..Dear Glendon -A Storage Unit Auction Question
@Glendon – time will tell (sorry for the cliche, but I couldn’t think of anything more fitting)
[...] In a post yesterday Mark posits that Twitter will die before Facebook and yes on the surface he makes some interesting points Twitter is a limited platform that is unlikely to evolve. Gen Y and younger (not to mention members of Gen X and older) can do Twitter in their sleep. But, it probably doesn’t do everything they want to do. They aren’t into just reading text. Yes, you can send links via Twitter, but each extra click you add is a barrier to it being used. [...]