Just for fun, I’m going to write down a few thoughts about modern technology (mainly focusing on Web 2.0). I’m really curious to see if you agree or disagree. Let’s see what you have to say in the comments section, OK?
- YouTube has become the video archive and de facto digital history of the human race and pop culture.
- Text messaging will become obsolete in five years when someone creates a mobile Web application that does the same thing for no extra cost (today, it all depends on how you use Twitter, I guess).
- Mobile computing will not replace either notebook or desktop PCs – too many people like the larger keyboards.
- Paper books will not disappear unless there is a massive environmental or economic crisis that massively curtails the availability of paper. In fact, paper books will stay at current sales levels, or even grow, indefinitely.
- In ten years, it will be common for people to use some kind of mobile computing device to scan each other and do all kinds of things based on the data they receive from these scans. For example, when two people meet and scan each other, applications on these devices might give them enough information to decide that they really don’t want to talk to each other. So they won’t.
- It will be 20 years before electronic voting will be permitted for a US Presidential election.
- A key challenging for adopting microblogging within large corporations is that these corps will want to make it secure and only available to employees. The problem, then, is that it may be hard to make a case to exploit it within these companies as there are already a number of similar technologies that do just about the same thing.
- Within ten years, the US and Canada will adopt widespread electronic payments by using a smartphone or mobile computing devices to make the transaction. But no sooner: too many parties have an interest in maintaining the status quo.
- As more and more companies are seeing their employees become more outwardly focused (i.e. looking more and more at what is happening outside of the company instead of what’s happening within the company), departments like sales, marketing, and customer service will either see themselves becoming more and more focused on more complex aspects of their work. However, they could also turn into consultants to other parts of the business on how to better integrate their functions into the rest of the business.
- The next big technology/paradigm shift will involve widespread implants or attached devices to help us use technology either by thought, muscle movements, or by voice.
What do you think? Please share your thoughts in the comments below. Feel free to tell me if I’m full of crap!
Concordo com a maioria dos itens expostos, mas como todos sabem, o capitalismo não pode avançar muito sem facilitar à maioria dos ignorantes ou sem privilégios, que só tem acesso quando é insistentemente convidado a participar.
Mais interessante observar é que os que vão na frente tem de mostrar o caminho para os retardatários, senão ficarão falando sozinhos. Imaginem um ser chipado altamente tecnologizado e com vasta informação cerebral sem que isso faça sentido em seu entorno. Seria a solidão e a morte, por opção. Torço para que no futuro as pessoas altamente tecnologizadas sejam mais caridosas.
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If only I could read this reply…
I think 5 & 10 are scary, but absolutely possible.
I also hope 4 is true. As convenient as ebooks and e-readers are, I still miss print copies. I don't know how many books I've purchased and downloaded, but never read because I don't want to be tied to the computer screen. And, some ebooks are too long to print. Reading a book has always felt like an experience, so it's just not the same when you can't flip the pages or make quick notes in the margins.
I wonder how many of these new technologies would be available in Canada. If anything, we'd end up paying even more premiums for new internet and mobile technologies. Just like we will for satellite services.
Great predictions.
A lot of that is spot on.
Actually, mobile internet is only a few pennies a megabyte, and is getting pretty cheap, so it wouldn't be a stretch to see more VoIP plans and such. I've got a $40/month mobile internet plan, which I can use to send emails as texts. Far cheaper. What we'd need, though, is an extension in the phone's OS that lets us retrieve our mail in the same way we'd get texts.
I can actually pay at checkouts with my cell using PayPal (I've never tried it, but I saw the option).
I hope 4 becomes true as well. As for Canada, yeah, we'll probably get a raw deal somehow. Unless we invent the technologies first.
I didn't know that you could do PayPal stuff via cell phone, interesting. Still need some big banks behind it to really make it go mainstream, though.